15 Predictions for the 21st Century
How the next century will transform our world
“It’s hard to make predictions, especially about the future”
- Yogi Berra
I love thinking about the future. As an optimist, the unprecedented rate of discovery, innovation, frontier technologies, social and political ideas, all of it makes me very excited about the future.
We are experiencing change at a more rapid pace than ever before in human history. This constant change, while it can be scary, will allow us to learn from both our successes and our failures better than we could have before. As long as society continues to encourage free-thinking, innovation, error-correction, and growth, forming an idea lab, the future will be a radically improved world. Unimaginably better than today, and the future to that future unimaginably better than that, off until infinity.
There’s a word I like when it comes to predictions: hyperstitious. This is a play on superstition, but rather than being false beliefs hyperstitions are self-fulfilling prophecies. It’s the idea that though the belief in the idea it causally brings it into fruition. The more people that believe in the idea, the more likely it will be brought into reality. By seeding positive innovative change into the minds of society, by making society hyperstitious about these transformations, we increase the likelihood of this radically improved future.
As Abraham Lincoln and Peter Drucker so beautifully put it:
“The best way to predict the future is to create it.”
Short-term (present-2050)
XR Becomes a Core Component of Everyday Life
You know those funny looking headsets where people run around slicing the air until they hit into the TV. Well, like it or not those are not just a fad, they’re here to stay.
But we’re in luck! Soon there devices will get insanely better (and look more normal, I promise), not just be immersive gaming platforms. The start of this trend can be seen with the VisionPro. The eye-tracking is a magical experience, with the clarity of the environment, blending with physical reality, being a surreal experience. Now if only it wasn’t so expensive with no apps.
It will soon be commonplace for everyone to have one or even more of these extended reality (XR) devices. Simply slip one of these future devices on and that’s your morning commute then work like Ironman or meet your friends on the beach by the campfire under the starlight. Leave your house with your XR glasses, where the physical world is overlayed with useful digital information. Let’s just hope for our sake it’s not advertisements.
Neural Technology is a Part of Common Consumer Products
Neural technologies? Do you mean that our phones will read our minds?
Well, yeah. Or at least least some devices will have some integral component that connects to the neural system. The first a foremost of these will be the XR devices we just talked about since it’s conveniently worn around the head. Just take a look at OpenBCIs Galea to see what the first iteration of this future may look like (again, hopefully aesthetically more pleasing for us).
These devices mainly read electrical signal from the brain through EEG. With this technology coming to consumers, that means much more data, which means that we can throw that to everyone’s favorite technology: AI! These innovations will allow for much greater personalization — live adaptation possible — in settings from work to education to gaming. They may even be able to understand language before 2050, so maybe we’ll have telepathy abilities and control the physical world with our brains…
I focused here on the consumer side of these products, but potentially more importantly the medical applications of these devices will have advanced to eliminate issues relating to paralysis and seizures, better understand and treat neurological disorders such as depression, PTSD, and ADHD, potentially even getting into the realm of treating Alzheimer’s or brain rejuvenation.
AGI has Arrived (Sort of)
Artificial general intelligence (AGI) tends to have numerous definitions, so lets first define what I mean. I view it as the AI having an ability to understand, learn, and apply knowledge across a diverse set of domains. Does this mean that AI will overtake humanity? No, no it does not. How I see it is that we will be at a place where a rule-of-thumb is to ask an AI instead of a human when learning or for decision making help. When we have achieved that, that is the first step of AGI to me.
This will radically transform life as we know it in so many ways that predicting it feels near impossible. I guess I should ask an AI…
Quantum Computers Will Break Encryption
Practically all of modern day encryption is RSA-based, which relies on it being hard for computers to factor large numbers. Unfortunately, this is an easy task for a quantum computer, with Peter Shor developing an algorithm in the late 90s to perform the task. Luckily, there are numerous methods to convert current encryption methods to be quantum-safe, so your bank accounts should be safe.
The implications of this technology being developed at scale and cheap, however, are much more far reaching than just encryption. Quantum computers are exceptional at modeling highly dynamic systems. By 2050 companies will be using these computers to create highly realistic virtual environments (always comes back to XR doesn’t it), model the physical world with high precision, even model biology to develop highly advanced drugs, maybe even to model the brain to understand intelligence and develop better AGI.
Vertical Farming and Hydroponics is Popular in Urban Areas
The future of farming isn’t in the vast, open fields — it’s stacking up in skyscraper farms right in the middle of the city! Alright, maybe on the edge of the city to still get cheaper real-estate but close enough.
These high-tech farms will grow all your favorite fruits, veggies, and greens — from your arugula and microgreens to delicious strawberries, and maybe even rice and flowers soon enough. And they do it all without a speck of dirt!
Why go with this approach? These setups use about 98% less water than traditional farming, take up way less space, and don’t need pesticides or herbicides. And since these farms are indoors, we can keep them running all year. No more “in season.” And best of all, you’ll be able to pick them up fresh from right around the corner!
Medium-term (2050-2075)
Self-sustaining Mars Colony is Formed
We’re heading to Mars! In the coming decade we’ll begin our first human trips to start this process. SpaceX plans to get the first people there before 2030, and even if it doesn’t happen until the early-mid 2030s it will still be an incredible feat.
Once humanity gets to Mars we’re going to need to terraform the planet, making it at least somewhat inhabitable for us humans. Building a city is hard enough on Earth, building a permanent residence on Mars you can bet will be harder.
Obviously shipping all the required materials to sustain the Mars colony does not make sense, so the people of Mars will become permanent residents, building a self-sustaining colony. The first non-Earth born humans will be born on a new planet. The thought puts a smile on my face.
Fusion energy becomes primary power source
The technology that is always 20 years away is final actually 20 years away. But like seriously, this time it’s for real (I hope). The largest fusion project right now, ITER, will hopefully be operational by mid-2030s and other experimental works such as SPARC will be up and running in the 40s.
The shift to renewable energy will continue in the future, being primarily dominated by solar and wind by the start of this period. However, with fusion being energy-dense, reliable, abundant, and ironically extremely safe, it will become the primary source of energy by 2075.
A major upside of all this innovation is that energy will become super cheap in the future. This means that things that rely on energy, including the cost of water, materials, manufacturing, and computation (so basically everything), also become super cheap, providing much greater accessibility in the future.
Energy is perhaps the most important resource and fusion will prove to be a significant advancement for humanity in harnessing that resource.
Cancer is eradicated as a major health risk
The holy grail of medicine. Cancer is perhaps the most well-researched (and funded) disease. With over $100B spent on this problem and still no solution, cancer proves to be a worthy enemy of humanity. That is because cancer isn’t actually a single disease, but a class of diseases. It doesn’t have a miracle, one-size-fits-all cure. This means it’ll require some more ingenuity and creative problem solving to beat!
By this time our ability to model, predict, and manufacture medicines will surpass nearly everyone’s imaginations. Quantum computing, AI, robotics, and surely other technologies will have allowed us to probe deeper into biology, giving us greater precision in manipulation and control.
This problem will be tackled from numerous angles. Vaccines and early detection technologies will be able to prevent or catch cancer before it becomes a problem. Even if it does manage to become a problem then precision medicine paired with targeted therapeutics will be able to be address an individual’s case. These advancements will have all but eradicated cancer once and for all as a major health risk.
In addition to cancer, most of the diseases that we now face will see significant advancement. With advancements in longevity technology all diseases of old age — Dementia, cardiovascular disease, diabetes… — will all see a dramatic reduction in health risk. The future of health looks bright.
Room-temperature Superconductors are a Reality
Ooh, material science time! Room temperature superconductors are these really cool materials that basically allow objects to levitate. Pretty cool, I know. However, superconducting materials need to be cooled to near absolute zero to have their useful properties, so… If only there was a way to make them have those properties at normal temperatures.
There was recent hype around a material named LK-99, but that turned out to be a bust. But no worries! We’ve been finding materials that superconduct at higher and higher temperatures (still wayyyy below room temperature though). Additionally, pairing material science with fields such as AI and quantum computing will accelerate progress.
The advent of this technology would revolutionize the energy field, being able to transmit electricity with zero loss, create dramatically more efficient storage systems, and reduce variability. As I mentioned before, energy will be one of the most impactful areas of progress, so this is a critical advancement. Additionally this would open up advanced medical technologies such as cheap MRIs and enable next-generation computing technologies. Most importantly though is that we’ll have levitating trains and cars, making the future look like we all believe it will!
Network State Gains Sovereignty
Perhaps my most speculative prediction. Firstly though, what the hell is a network state?
A network state is an online-first, highly aligned community with shared beliefs, goals, and ideas with the capacity for collection action, crowd-funding territory, eventually gaining diplomatic recognition. Alright, that’s probably a lot to consider. Just imagine it as someone who wrote the Declaration of Independence, posting it on social media, getting millions of followers, convincing people to then live together, becoming some sort of “State.”
Currently smaller scale versions of this concept exist in reality with special economic zones (SEZs) giving greater autonomy for self-governance in certain zones. I’ve been to one for a month in Honduras named Prospera. To learn more about the whole concept Read Balaji’s book The Network State.
With humanity becoming more online-centric, XR collapsing the importance of geographical proximity, and my belief that governance should be more focused in a local, aligned community, the popularity of the network state idea will surely grow. By 2075 a popular network state may very well have enough land, money, and power to be recognized, given sovereignty, and be a part of the UN.
Long-term (2075-2100)
Conventional Meat Becomes Obsolete
Meat alternatives have already gained a substantial market share. With veggie products or lab-grown meat products, people have started to change their consumption habits. However, even I, someone who very much does not support the practices of the meat industry and am pretty flexible in food choices, still primarily consume traditional meat. So what will change this? Science! And engineering too.
By this time nearly all of traditional agricultural and related infrastructure will have been replaced with more economical, ethical alternatives. On the other hand, biotech innovations will have caused engineered meat to be much cheaper, environmental, ethical, healthier, and tastier than slaughterhouse animal meat. The long-held tradition of eating other animals will finally be replaced by something which is going to be better in literally every way.
More Babies are Born in Artificial Wombs than Traditional Pregnancy
People tend to get a bit reflexively feisty when it comes to innovations in reproductive technology, making this perhaps my most controversial prediction so far (don’t worry, the rest will challenge that title). The technology to make an artificial womb viable for embryo development is accelerating, with progress at both ends — successfully incubating the fetus for the start of the development and keeping it alive after removal from the womb at earlier and earlier stages — clearly indicating that this will be an option by 2050. While technologically feasible, why would anyone want to use this? Alright, here goes my spiel.
First off, I’m a man and luckily not going to go through pregnancy but my gosh I’d be scared to. The process seems incredibly taxing on the body, painful, not to mention the health complications and risk involved. If I can have a child without that process count me in.
People argue a connection is made between the mother and baby, which I totally respect. The mother’s body also adapts to take care of the baby afterwards such as initiating lactation. First off, if artificial wombs exist surely we can figure out how to initiate any of those processes artificially. Secondly, it’ll still be your choice if you want to foster that bond. Personally, I think there are plenty other much more reasonable ways to foster it, but the decision is yours.
People also argue that it’s too artificial; that they want a natural birth. However, the birth process is by no means natural. From processes such as IVF, to medical screening, pain medications, fertility medication or birth control, C-sections… The list goes on.
Using an artificial womb is also conducive for gene editing for designer babies that will be healthier than modern babies by eliminating genetic disease, and allow for other genetic choices made by the family. I predict society will have adapted to this being normal and desirable, with the primary method to perform this being that of using an artificial womb.
Essentially, it’ll be healthier, safer, cheaper, well-accepted, pain-free alternative to traditional birth. Why not use it?
The First AI “Person” will be Established
By this time AI has become not just an essential part of everyone’s lives, it has long been an important social connection for many. From the earliest days of AI people began forming feelings towards AI, anthropomorphizing simply rule-based systems. Very soon people will begin to have AI partners. There will be many embodied AI systems and life-like virtual AIs which people form a strong connection to. I strongly recommend reading The Lifecycle of Software Objects by Ted Chiang to explore that idea more.
Even regardless of the connection they form with us, it will soon be hard to ethically justify “shutting down” these AIs. The question of consciousness will be a big point in this debate, with a theory of consciousness being a critical component to establish the personhood of AI.
I find it hard to imagine a world where AI has a significant economic and social integration yet they do not get any rights of a human. Although their “personhood” rights may differ due to the nature of the differences between us and them, surely some semblance of “personhood” and rights will be given to AIs by this time. This will cause a societal shift on a scale greater than the Civil Rights Movement, having numerous implications, of which we’ll need to wait and see.
Programmable Matter Comes to the Market
Isn’t it so bland that items in the physical world are static? Like why can’t they change shape, size, color, texture; essentially, why can’t they be programmable? Well you’re in luck since by this time we will very likely have programmable matter that can do all that.
The technological feasibility of this lies at the cross section between material science, robotics, nanotech, and computer science. How this will work is there will be many many tiny “smart particles,” which the field calls catoms (claytronic atoms) that can be programmed and self-assemble in three-dimensional space. This will allow them to form tangible, reprogrammable object in physical space. Pretty neat.
You need a bigger table and more chairs for dinner with your friends, just reprogram your couch to suit your needs. And you want it to be themed appropriate for your penguin party, just program that too! Industries will be transformed from this technology, from adaptable tools for medicine and surgery, buildings being built in minutes, self-healing materials, but best of all, it may be able to be worn and dynamically camouflage you with the environment creating an invisibility cloak.
Biological Immortality is Achieved
Last, but certainly not least, my final prediction is that by the end of the century humanity will have achieved biological immortality. What this means is that humans will no longer age. As predicted before, this has been worked on already for a number of decades, making strides of progress by eliminating age-related diseases such as cancer and heart disease. By the end of the century, however, science and technology will have advanced to a point where longevity escape velocity — the time where life expectancy increases at a greater pace than we age — will have been reached.
The two major paths for achieving this is through two strategies: advanced bioengineering and replacement. Advanced bioengineering is essentially the ability to program biology at a fine-grained scale. Replacement is the strategy of replacing old body parts with young, healthy parts, including organs, skin, bones, even the brain. Both strategies are already gaining traction today, and with the incredible incentives that an indefinite healthy lifespan provides, I pray that people work on this problem, making this a reality by the end of the century (I’m a bit biased since I was born in 2000 and would really like access to this).
Conclusion
So that’s it. By the end of the century humans will be biologically immortal, growing their babies how they grow their food, harnessing the power of the sun, programming the physical reality, which they are now sharing with AI people, and a whole bunch of other crazy stuff I can’t predict.
While some of these predictions may sound wild, some even dystopian, remember that humanity is good. We discover, we build, we learn, and we build again. We are flawed. We don’t get everything right on the first try. There are occasional bad actors. But on the macro sense, we are good. And that makes me optimistic for where the future will take us.
Please comment to share which predictions you thought were the best, worst, weirdest, funniest, most exciting, something I left out (which is many), or your take on where humanity is heading in the future. I’ll see you there.
As crazy as some of these predictions seem, I never would have imagined today’s world when I was a kid. I think you should put these predictions in an old fashioned time capsule, bury it in the yard, and dig ig up in 50 years. It will be interesting to see, and also fun to dig in the dirt with an actual shovel when most of the world has gone digital! Of all of the predictions, I would love to see the eradication of disease even though most things when extinguished are replaced by new things. I love the optimistic tone of your thoughts and look forward to reading your next post!
Nice list.
I think you're optimistic on some and pessimistic on others - I suspect conventional meat will be obsolete not long after lab grown cell meat comes down in price to match it.